Not Dead, But In Decline

After their absolute thrashing in the last election, pundits have been eager to weigh in, predicting the death or imminent demise of the Republican Party. This is, perhaps, premature; some of us well recall that after their defeat in 2008 the same pundits were eager to declare that the GOP was dead, only to be unfortunately proven wrong by the emergence of the Tea Party. Yet while it is too early to order a tombstone for one of our two political parties, it is not a stretch to say that the current Republican Party is on a downward spiral and shows no sign of having learned anything from the past two elections. In fact, despite a few Republican figures calling for a time of reflection, many in the right wing seem to think that the problem was not their ideology, it was that they were not ideologically "pure" enough--ironically echoing sentiments expressed following their loss in 2008. While Romney won the majority of white male votes (and those who frequently attend church were far more likely to vote for him than for the President), the party lost quite badly among the demographics that matter, among Hispanics and other minorities as well as among younger voters. The party could afford to ignore those demographics in the past and still win, but that time has passed. Winning whites (and increasingly only whites) is no longer enough to win the major elections. While the GOP retained its majority in the House of Representatives, even figures within the party freely admit that the only reason they did so was because of an intensive effort to gerrymander congressional districts in 2010. What's more, instead of the self-examination that some have called for, many in the Republican Party, including the current party Chairman, Reince Priebus, have endorsed gerrymandering on an even grander scale, calling for a change in the way Electoral College votes are awarded, changes that are specifically aimed at turning blue states red in the next presidential election. Pennsylvania, where politicians in Harrisburg already attempted to swing the state red with a Voter ID law, may well prove a test case. The state itself has gone for Democrat candidates in the last few presidential elections thanks in no small part to the reliably blue urban populations of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia--assisted with strong blue concentrations in Erie, State College, and a few of the eastern counties north of Philadelphia. The legislature would like to see that ended, and they seek to do just that with a scheme to reapportion Electoral College votes, replacing the current "winner take all" system (the candidate with the most popular votes receives all of the Electoral College votes--the standard system) with an apportionment method based upon congressional districts (which themselves have already been rigged to favor Republican candidates).

When you have to rig elections just to win, there is something terribly wrong with your party. And in fact, this is no surprise. Not only has the GOP been failing to win support from the growing minority populations in the United States, they are on the losing side of a number of social issues as well, including their persistent opposition to gay marriage. Rigging an election can help win today, but it will only delay the inevitable. No amount of election-stealing measures will be enough to save the GOP forever, if it makes no effort to evolve. I suspect that the GOP will eventually die; they certainly seem to be doing exactly the same things that they did before the election and do not seem inclined to change. Their renewed efforts to change future elections through slights-of-hand smack distinctly of desperation. But they are not dead just yet, and while they control the House and many State Legislatures they have the ability to do a lot of damage. They may be a Party that is hostile to gays, to women in no small measure, to the LGBTQ community, to the environment, and even to basic ideas of economics and reason, but that does not mean that they are dead.

I do have some confidence that their demise is closer at hand than many may think (unless, of course, they do reform which they, again, do not seem inclined to do so). While putting another Republican in the White House in 2008 was a tough sell after the disastrous two terms that came before, the election of 2012 was to be a referendum on the President. It was conventional wisdom that the GOP should easily take the White House, but they managed to blow it. If current trends continue, I think it likely that the House GOP will diminish in number (even if they retain their majority), and if the Democratic Party can elect the next President as well (the demographics are promising, at the least) there is a chance that the Supreme Court can be shifted to the left as four of the nine justices are well into their seventies. If the economy improves, if the GOP continues to be seen as a party controlled by an utterly irresponsible fringe, there is a good chance that the Democrats can again become a long-lasting majority in Washington D.C.

It is possible that this may happen, of course, but there is much work to be done to help realize this future, a future in which the GOP becomes so marginalized that they become more like a third party than one of the two major ones. The first and foremost task is to prevent further efforts to suppress or dilute votes. Efforts to make it harder to vote need to be halted and rolled back at all cost, especially in Pennsylvania and in Florida. The hyper-partisans responsible for these efforts need to be punished vigorously as an example of those who would seek to bastardize the political process to advance partisan goals--no matter what party or ideology they seek to advance. 

Second, the influence of corporate money in our election must be limited. The decision of the Supreme Court in Citizens United was a terrible mistake, and the sooner we seek to remedy it the better off we will be. Corporations are not people, to put it simply, and our election laws need to recognize this for the simple fact that corporations have far more resources to draw upon than most individuals. As part of this effort, greater transparency in our elections is needed. It is imperative that SuperPACs be reined in; they must be required, at the least, to disclose who their donors are so that individuals and interested media outlets can see who is really funding the ads. No longer should corporate money be allowed to masquerade as grassroots efforts under innocuous-sounding names like "Americans For Prosperity" or some other such rot.

To further diminish the influence of money in politics, I firmly believe that campaigns and their associated ads must be limited. Most of the public grows weary of the absolute bombardment of political ads to which we are subjected every single election cycle. The slew of ads only seems to be growing worse, and the increasing frequency of ads makes each election more expensive than the last, ensuring that more funds are needed to campaign. This not only pushes elected office further out of reach for most people, but it also makes it far more likely that candidates will be forced to accept "special interest" money and thus become more likely to be beholden to said special interests.

One of the most important things that we must accomplish for the health of our republic is the elimination of gerrymandering completely. This is undoubtedly one of the hardest goals to accomplish as both parties engage in it, but it is one of the most necessary. Gerrymandering, as with any attempts to distort the intent of the voters, is a direct strike at the heart of the republic. Politics must be removed from the process; at the very least, redistricting needs to be conducted by a bipartisan committee. A better solution would be to remove it from the control of politicians completely, with district lines draw based solely on the required population numbers rather than considerations of politics. In our political system, no Congressional seat should ever be considered "safe."

These few goals are but a handful of actions that need to be taken, but if they are it will go a long way towards fixing some of the problems of our governing system. While things may seem grim, it is important to remember that decline, or the perception of decline, is not irreversible. Both the Roman and Byzantine Empires experienced long periods of decline before a reforming government took control and halted the decline. If they can do it, so can we, if only we can summon up the will to do so. It won't matter what the politicians want if we demand these solutions of them. No matter the influence of the corporatists, if enough people demand reform it will happen. It is only a matter of getting mobilized and involved--and that may well be the hardest battle of all.